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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • The projections expect Kyle Pitts to accumulate 5.4 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Kyle Pitts's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 30.4.
  • With an excellent 3.6 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts rates among the leading TEs in the pass game in the league.
  • Kyle Pitts's 80.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents an impressive boost in his receiving ability over last season's 65.2% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

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