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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +121 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see 129.0 total plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (57.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Falcons.

Since the start of last season, the strong Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed a measly 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.

The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 9th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

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