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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.6 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • Kyle Pitts's 91.5% Route Participation Rate this season conveys a noteable growth in his air attack usage over last season's 75.7% mark.
  • Our trusted projections expect Kyle Pitts to notch 8.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 4.5-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 55.6% pass rate.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.
  • This year, the poor New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed a staggering 81.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst rate in football.

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