Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+111/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to garner 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 99th percentile for TEs.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
Kyle Pitts's receiving talent has diminished this year, totaling a measly 2.4 yards per game vs 3.9 last year.
Kyle Pitts's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 44.1%.

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