Kyle Pitts Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
Kyle Pitts has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense this season (26.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.0%).
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Kyle Pitts's play as a receiver has declined this year, accumulating a mere 2.8 yards per game vs 3.9 last year.

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