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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.

The Falcons have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

Kyle Pitts has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.1% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (75.7%).

This week, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the projections to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.8 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.8% pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see only 123.5 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.

Kyle Pitts's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a remarkable decrease in his effectiveness in space over last season's 5.0% figure.

This year, the fierce Bills defense has conceded a mere 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the best in football.

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