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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-114/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The projections expect Kyle Pitts to accumulate 5.4 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 35.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 36.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 30.4.

With an excellent 32.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (81st percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts has been as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Falcons to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Falcons offense has played at the 9th-most sluggish pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 29.43 seconds per play.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Commanders, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

Kyle Pitts's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a meaningful reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 5.0% mark.

Since the start of last season, the tough Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 10th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a paltry 3.9 YAC.

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