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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Falcons since the start of last season (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).

With a sizeable 76.9% Route% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyle Pitts has been among the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.

In this game, Kyle Pitts is predicted by the projections to land in the 83rd percentile among tight ends with 5.1 targets.

When it comes to air yards, Kyle Pitts grades out in the towering 88th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accumulating a staggering 36.0 per game.

Kyle Pitts's 82.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 65.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Falcons as the 4th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see just 121.5 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Falcons have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather in this game.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.6 per game) since the start of last season.

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