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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-103/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -126.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • Kyle Pitts has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (90.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (75.7%).
  • In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 8.4 targets.
  • Kyle Pitts has compiled significantly more air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (36.0 per game).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the least efficient receivers in football among TEs, averaging a lowly 6.61 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 19th percentile.
  • Kyle Pitts's skills in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.98 figure last year.
  • The Saints linebackers grade out as the 10th-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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