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Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Atlanta Falcons last year (a whopping 59.2 per game on average).

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel last year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) last year.

With a remarkable 75.7% Route% (85th percentile) last year, Kyle Pitts rates as one of the TEs with the most usage in the NFL.

This week, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 81st percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons to be the least pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.9% pass rate.

The model projects the Falcons to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Kyle Pitts is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among tight ends, catching just 65.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 10th percentile.

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