Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Kyle Pitts

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Pitts

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At only 26.79 seconds per play, the Atlanta Falcons offense is positioned as the 3rd-fastest paced in football (in a neutral context) last year.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Kyle Pitts is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 7.0 targets.
Kyle Pitts has compiled a staggering 61.0 air yards per game last year: 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense last year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
With a feeble 60.1% Adjusted Completion% (4th percentile) last year, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.
Kyle Pitts grades out as one of the worst tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 6th percentile.
The Steelers linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in football last year in defending receivers.

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