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Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-105/-125).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.The leading projections forecast Kyle Pitts to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.With an excellent 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (79th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts rates as one of the leading TEs in the pass game in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has seen a big downtick this year, currently boasting 61.0 per game.With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Kyle Pitts has been utilized much less in his team's passing attack.Kyle Pitts's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, accumulating a mere 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.61 rate last season.This year, the stout Saints defense has given up a mere 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.
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