Kyle Juszczyk Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Kyle Juszczyk

FB · San Francisco 49ers

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2025

Updated Sep 28, 2025 5:42 PM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Juszczyk Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-1900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1900.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
Kyle Juszczyk has garnered a lowly 0.0% of his team's red zone run game usage this year, ranking him in the 1st percentile among RBs.
When talking about air yards, Kyle Juszczyk ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging a superb 10.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Kyle Juszczyk ranks in the 96th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.25 per game.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (45.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.
Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
Our trusted projections expect Kyle Juszczyk to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this week's game (3.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).