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Kyle Juszczyk

Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

When talking about air yards, Kyle Juszczyk ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging a superb 10.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

Since the start of last season, the porous Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded a monstrous 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 2nd-worst in football.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.29 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

Kyle Juszczyk's 24.2% Route Participation Rate this year represents a meaningful drop-off in his air attack volume over last year's 39.0% mark.

Kyle Juszczyk profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to running backs, completing a mere 67.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile.

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