Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Kyle Juszczyk

FB · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Kyle Juszczyk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Kyle Juszczyk has accrued a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Kyle Juszczyk's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 76.3% to 84.3%.
Kyle Juszczyk's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, compiling 8.69 yards-per-target compared to just 7.31 figure last year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Kyle Juszczyk's 10.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 15.9.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 22.0) vs. running backs this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. RBs this year, surrendering 4.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.