Kyle Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Kyle Allen

QB · Houston Texans

TD Passes

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Kyle Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+204/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -278.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will be rolling with backup quarterback Kyle Allen in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Houston Texans O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.