K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-106/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (63.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (63.4%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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