K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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