K.J. Osborn Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 136.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.