K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Our trusted projections expect the Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
K.J. Osborn has been used less as a potential target this season (94.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (81.2%).

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The model projects this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
K.J. Osborn's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 69.8% to 66.5%.

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