K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
K.J. Osborn's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.0% to 71.7%.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
K.J. Osborn has notched far fewer air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (47.0 per game).
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
K.J. Osborn's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, totaling just 6.94 yards-per-target vs a 8.39 rate last year.
K.J. Osborn has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 2.63 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.

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