K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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K.J. Osborn

NFL · Player Props

K.J. Osborn

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Osborn Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
K.J. Osborn's receiving efficiency has worsened this season, compiling a measly 7.16 yards-per-target compared to a 8.35 figure last season.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.2%) to WRs this year (64.2%).
The New York Giants pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 7.84 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the NFL.

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