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K.J. Osborn Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+299/-529).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -512 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -529.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.K.J. Osborn's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.0% to 71.7%.K.J. Osborn ranks in the 89th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Vikings are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.The New Orleans Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
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