K.J. Hamler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 7, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects K.J. Hamler to be a more important option in his offense's passing game this week (8.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (62.6%).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.