K.J. Hamler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

K.J. Hamler

WR · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 6, 2022 11:35 PM UTC

Analysis

K.J. Hamler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+434/-988).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects K.J. Hamler to be a more integral piece of his team's pass game near the end zone this week (8.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.6%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (62.6%).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.