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Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kirk Cousins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2750/-14500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -12000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -14500.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have 135.2 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Kirk Cousins has not attempted to run the ball himself near the goal line at all this year.
  • The Atlanta O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The running touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Kirk Cousins's trading card this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is implied by the Falcons being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
  • The model projects the Falcons to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 48.6% red zone run rate.
  • Kirk Cousins's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 65.6% to 62.6%.
  • Kirk Cousins has been among the bottom TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 0.75 per game while checking in at the 21st percentile.

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