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Kirk Cousins

Kirk Cousins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Kirk Cousins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+3000/-6000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -6000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -6000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -4.5-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.25 seconds per play.
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Sitting at zero red zone rush attempts this year, Kirk Cousins's lack of speed marks him as a no threat in the run game near the end zone.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons grades out as the 4th-best in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Falcons.
  • Kirk Cousins's 60.6% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a material drop-off in his throwing precision over last year's 65.6% figure.
  • The opposing side have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the league (1.15 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Tampa Bay's safety corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the best in the league.

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