Kirk Cousins Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Kirk Cousins

NFL · Player Props

Kirk Cousins

QB · Atlanta Falcons

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 23, 2024 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 220.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 231.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 60.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 131.9 offensive plays run: the 3rd-most out of all the games this week.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
This week, Kirk Cousins is anticipated by the model to total the 4th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.0.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a feeble 195.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in the league.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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