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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Khalil Shakir Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -265.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • With a high 22.9% Red Zone Target Share (86th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been among the wideouts with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Khalil Shakir is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in football, catching a stellar 80.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
  • Khalil Shakir grades out in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a remarkable 0.38 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Khalil Shakir has compiled far fewer air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).
  • This year, the stout Chiefs defense has allowed a feeble 0.75 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-best rate in football.

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