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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Khalil Shakir Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-245).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
  • Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 23.3% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
  • The Bills O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • Khalil Shakir is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, completing an outstanding 82.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
  • With a fantastic rate of 0.29 per game through the air (80th percentile), Khalil Shakir stands as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the projections to run only 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • After averaging 36.0 air yards per game last year, Khalil Shakir has regressed heavily this year, currently pacing 23.0 per game.
  • Khalil Shakir's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 44.5.

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