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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Khalil Shakir Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-255).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +235 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Khalil Shakir's 90.2% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a significant progression in his receiving talent over last year's 80.5% figure.
  • With a stellar ratio of 0.40 per game through the air (87th percentile), Khalil Shakir ranks as one of the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in football among wideouts this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Khalil Shakir has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).
  • Khalil Shakir's 31.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 44.5.

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