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Khalil Shakir Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-290).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.Khalil Shakir is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in an excellent 80.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (70.0%).When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Miami's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-best in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the league to wide receivers: 0.84 per game since the start of last season.
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