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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Khalil Shakir Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-305).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -335 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -305.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
  • With a sizeable 18.3% Red Zone Target Share (78th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir places among the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in the league.
  • In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • Khalil Shakir is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in football, hauling in a fantastic 79.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
  • This year, the porous Browns defense has conceded a whopping 1.07 receiving TDs per game to opposing wideouts: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.3% red zone run rate.
  • The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

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