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Khalil Shakir

Khalil Shakir Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Khalil Shakir Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-151/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -151.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • Khalil Shakir's 90.2% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a significant progression in his receiving talent over last year's 80.5% figure.
  • The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Khalil Shakir has been a less important option in his offense's passing offense this year (15.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.6%).
  • Khalil Shakir's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a substantial decline in his receiving ability over last year's 5.1 mark.

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