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Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Khalil Shakir's 90.2% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a significant progression in his receiving talent over last year's 80.5% figure.

Khalil Shakir's pass-game effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 11.28 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 8.87 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Khalil Shakir has been a less important option in his offense's passing offense this year (15.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.6%).

Khalil Shakir has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (36.0 per game).

More Khalil Shakir Player Props

Khalil Shakir Receiving YardsPlayer Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5