Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 77.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to garner 20.9 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (59.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.7% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

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