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Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Bears being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.

The Bears rank as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 66.1% pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.0 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

Khalil Herbert has accumulated a massive 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Houston's group of safeties has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Texans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 32.3 per game) since the start of last season.

The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

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