Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Khalil Herbert has run more routes this season (45.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (26.9%).
Khalil Herbert has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (4.0).
The Detroit Lions pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 10.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Khalil Herbert's 69.8% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a significant decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 81.8% rate.
The Lions pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67%) vs. running backs this year (67.0%).

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