Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-122/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing running backs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.17 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-most in the league.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 52.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in the league.
Khalil Herbert has put up a mere -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 9th percentile among RBs.

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