Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Khalil Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Khalil Herbert

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Khalil Herbert's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 87.5% to 100.0%.
Khalil Herbert has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among RBs, averaging a terrific 7.03 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
Khalil Herbert has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 49.6% of snaps vs just 28.4% last year.
Khalil Herbert has totaled a meager -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.

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