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Khalil Herbert

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Khalil Herbert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Khalil Herbert's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 87.5% to 100.0%.

Khalil Herbert has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among RBs, averaging a terrific 7.03 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 80th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.

Khalil Herbert has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 49.6% of snaps vs just 28.4% last year.

Khalil Herbert has totaled a meager -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.

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