My Account Log Out
 
 
KhaDarel Hodge

KhaDarel Hodge Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
KhaDarel Hodge Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+570/-760).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +670 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +570.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 142.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
  • Our trusted projections expect KhaDarel Hodge to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest (13.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • After accumulating 9.0 air yards per game last season, KhaDarel Hodge has produced significantly more this season, now sitting at 17.0 per game.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (56.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Atlanta Falcons.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • KhaDarel Hodge's 10.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the worst in the league: 19th percentile for WRs.
  • KhaDarel Hodge grades out as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 26.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 4th percentile among WRs
  • With a lousy ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), KhaDarel Hodge places among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to wide receivers this year.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™