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KhaDarel Hodge

KhaDarel Hodge Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
KhaDarel Hodge Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+3200/-4000).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +4000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +3200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
  • After averaging 9.0 air yards per game last year, KhaDarel Hodge has been rising this year, currently sitting at 16.0 per game.
  • The Falcons O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Panthers defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a 4-point favorite in this game.
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 55.9% of their plays: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 6th-most run-focused team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • The projections expect the Falcons to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • KhaDarel Hodge has been been lightly used his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to wideouts.

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