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Kevin Austin Jr.

Kevin Austin Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Kevin Austin Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -275.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Saints offensive scheme to tilt 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • This week's line indicates a passing game script for the Saints, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 137.5 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Saints this year (a monstrous 59.2 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 10th-most run-heavy team in football in the red zone (45.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Saints.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.9 per game) this year.
  • Kevin Austin Jr. has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
  • Kevin Austin Jr.'s 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 21.9.
  • The Atlanta defensive tackles project as the worst DT corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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