Kenyan Drake Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kenyan Drake

NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+361/-715).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +411 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +361.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Kenyan Drake has run for 0.38 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among running backs (78th percentile).
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 27th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a less important option in his team's running game near the goal line this week (25.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.5% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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