Kenyan Drake Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Kenyan Drake

NFL · Player Props

Kenyan Drake

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenyan Drake Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-140/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a heavy 13-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 27th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (21.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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