Kenny Pickett Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Kenny Pickett

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Kenny Pickett Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 222.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 236.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 222.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-most yards in football (267.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (72.4%).
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-least in the league.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.