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Kenny Pickett

Kenny Pickett Completions
Player Prop Week 7

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on a measly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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