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Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Kenneth Walker III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-198).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -198.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.
  • With an exceptional 90.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (85th percentile) this year, Kenneth Walker III rates among the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs.
  • This year, the poor San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered a massive 87.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-biggest rate in football.
  • Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.75 per game) against the 49ers defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to skew 7.5% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
  • The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Out of all RBs, Kenneth Walker III ranks in the 77th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, making up 37.8% of the volume in his offense's ground game near the goal line.

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