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Kenneth Walker III

Kenneth Walker III Receptions
Player Prop Week 23

New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Kenneth Walker III Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Walker III to accumulate 2.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Kenneth Walker III rates as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, catching a remarkable 91.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 90th percentile.
  • This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has yielded a whopping 86.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 4.5 points.
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 55.5% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • At the moment, the 6th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Seahawks.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 26.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: fewest in the league.
  • Kenneth Walker III has been a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this season (8.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (14.0%).

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