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Kenneth Gainwell Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-375).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -365 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -375.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.The leading projections forecast Kenneth Gainwell to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the end zone in this contest (9.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.5% in games he has played).Since the start of last season, the poor Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 0.37 receiving TDs per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in the league.As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 57.1% rate of running the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league in these situations has been the Pittsburgh Steelers.In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.In regards to air yards, Kenneth Gainwell grades out in the measly 25th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling just -1.0 per game.With a poor 73.8% Adjusted Catch% (21st percentile) this year, Kenneth Gainwell has been as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among RBs.With a terrible ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Kenneth Gainwell stands among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in the league among running backs since the start of last season.
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